问题详情

Economy Terrorized
From Wall Street to Main Street, Layoffs, Losses, and Little Hope
The popular word in business before September 11 was "visibility." Company after company complained about their gloomy future because of the worsening economy. Now, though, corporate America has a clear vision of the immediate future--and it"s not a good one. "The attack has turned the business world upside down," says Diane Swonk, chief economist at Bank One in Chicago.
Companies have been aware of the possible loss due to the terror attacks. Firms directly affected by the horror, such as Boeing and Marriott, warned of lower profits. Airline layoffs alone will top 100,000, pushing some analysts to say as many as one million workers may lose their jobs because of the post-attack repercussions (反应). On Capitol Hill, lawmakers and the Bush administration began preparing an economic emergency response. "The foundations of our free society remain sound, and I am confident that we will recover and prosper as we have in the past," Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress.
A chief executive of Frontier Airlines in Denver last week announced a 20 percent flight reduction and large scale layoffs.
On Wall Street, markets tumbled (TM) amid the likelihood of recession and war: The Dow Jones industrial average fell nearly 700 points Monday. "It"s no longer about earnings or the economy or interest rates anymore," says Morgan Stanley market strategist Peter Canelo. "It"s about fear."
Some observers believe Washington"s response could be effective to prevent further economy deterioration. "The recovery could be much smoother than expected due to the fiscal and monetary stimulus we"re in store for," says Richard Weiss, chief investment officer for City National Bank.
Restoring consumer confidence is a top priority for Greenspan and Congress, given that consumer spending accounts for about two thirds of the nation"s total output. To that end, the Fed has been flooding the markets with cash. Congress, meanwhile, is awash in plans to spend money, drawing down the $153 billion Social Security surplus. There"s even talk of further tax cuts.
The economic devastation of the worst disaster on American soil is far and wide. Last week, individual industries began to estimate the loss.
Airlines
While "recessions are bad for the airline industry, terrorism is worse," says a senior vice president at aviation consultants Avitas. Now both are serious problems for airliners, as heavily indebted and cash-poor companies are seeing a drastic reduction in bookings. Some planes are flying less than half full. Experts predict that this will put some airliners out of business and the total industry losses will amount to ＄10 billion by the end of next year.
When--and if--the industry recovers, it will have been fundamentally changed. Passengers might find fewer flights overall and limited service to smaller airports, as airlines focus on large, profitable hubs (交通枢纽).
Oil
As U.S. naval forces headed out from Norfolk (美国一个重要的海军基地) toward the Middle East, the oil market was nervous but focused as much on recession as on the threat of war. Crude prices slid downward due to the predicted economic slowdown and a drop in air travel which would reduce demand. Still, with the prospect of armed conflict very real, analysts see considerable risk of higher energy prices, especially when the war might involve Iraq, an oil-producing country.
But Michael Lynch of the research firm DRI-WEFA said that despite decreasing demand, the terror attack had produced an "uncertainty effect" that would possibly drive oil prices higher in the weeks ahead. Lynch said that oil companies and large industrial users of oil very likely would attempt to build their inventories amid uncertaint
A．Y
B．N
C．NG